The global solar photovoltaic (PV) balance of system (BOS) market will decline in value from an estimated $34.9 billion in 2014 to $24.9 billion by 2020, due to falling BOS costs and the slow increase in global annual capacity additions, says research and consulting firm GlobalData.
However, the company’s latest report* indicates that while developed markets, such as the US, UK and Germany, will be the main contributors to this decline, some emerging countries, led by China, will witness growth over the forecast period.
The largest drop will occur in the US, where the solar PV BOS market value will more than half, from $6.7 billion in 2014 to $3.3 billion by 2020.
Harshavardhan Reddy Nagatham, GlobalData’s Analyst covering Power, says: “The US solar PV market has grown strongly in recent years, and policies that promote solar power are increasing at both the federal and state level.
“Thanks to Investment Tax Credits (ITCs), the BOS market will see some initial growth, but it will begin to decline when ITCs expire in December 2016. This, combined with the cost of systems continuing to slide, will cause the US market to fall below 2011 levels by the end of the decade.”
By contrast, China’s BOS market value will expand from $6.8 billion in 2014 to $8.2 billion by 2020, cementing its position as the world’s leader in this space.
Nagatham continues: “China’s government has introduced a number of financial and regulatory initiatives to promote renewable energy sources. The country’s National Energy Administration is spending about CNY250 billion, or $39.5 billion, on developing the solar power sector during the 12th Five Year Plan, which ends this year.
“As such, China’s annual capacity additions have increased rapidly over the past few years, rocketing from 0.5 Gigawatts (GW) in 2010 to 12.42 GW by 2013. This high level of annual addition is expected to continue with even more growth through to 2020, providing a huge opportunity for BOS manufacturers.”