Who Needs Subsidies? Solar Industry Doing Fine Without Them 1

Lux Research announced this week that it expects solar installations will grow to 38.3 GW by 2017 as the solar market goes global.

After posting an incredible growth of 66% to 26.5 GW in 2011, Lux expects installations to momentarily stall this year at 26.9 GW. However, as the industry learns how to navigate the global market that’s losing its subsidies, growth will no longer be an issue.

Lux Research analyst Matthew Feinstein said of the solar industry without subsidies, “Opportunities remain and extended success is possible for stakeholders, but the market’s shifting geographic profile—combined with a forced withdrawal from subsidy addiction—means strategic, surgical moves are needed.”

In addition, other Lux analysts ran a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis in 156 different locations, which accounts for more than 82% of the world’s population. This analysis calculated internal rates of return to determine how feasible solar energy is in a given area. All of this data is fed into the Lux Research Solar Demand Forecaster. Lux’s conclusions were as follows:

  • Emerging markets more than quadruple in size. These markets will prove to be a battleground for suppliers with growth projected to rise from 1 GW in 2011 to 4.5 GW in 2017. Africa and South America will takeover in 2017 to 2022 as they quickly progress towards 1 GW.
  • Utility-scale application segment grows. Large emerging markets like China will gain substantial utility-scale installations, helping to push the sector from 6.3 GW in 2011 to 13.8 GW in 2017.
  • Securitization boosts smaller installations. In the US, both residential and commercial markets have seen a growth in asset-baked securities small-scale segments. This type of securitization has been tested by Wells Fargo in New Jersey and only figures to grow in 2012 and 2013, especially when the big banks like Citigroup hop onboard.

    Solar Market Soars Without Subsidies! originally appeared in Green Chip Stocks. Green Chip Review is a free 2x-per-week newsletter, is the first advisory to focus exclusively on investments in alternative and renewable energies.

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1 Comment

  1. Total GW installed for the year 2017 will be closer to 240 GW. The lux research group is not looking at the growth rate in solar for the last 20 years. It was 28 GW last year 2011. IMS research says it will be 32.5 GW in 2012. ( I predict 40 GW in 2012). The growth rate in solar is 100% every two years for the last 20 years. Why is it suppose to drastically slow down?

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