Can solar replace retired nuclear in Japan? Will Japan’s booming solar market have legs or will it fade like a FIT?
Before the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan had about 50 gigawatts of electrical capacity from 50 nuclear reactors. Just two of those reactors have been restarted — but others will come on-line as they pass safety checks. Nuclear business, jobs, and politics will likely trump anti-nuclear sentiment in Japan.
While those reactors are offline, Japan makes up for the loss of 25 percent of its baseload power with fossil fuel imports, along with utility rate increases to pay for the fuel.
If solar is to help make up the shortfall, then the Japanese PV market will have to field unprecedented growth. And 2013 looks to be an impressive start to that growth curve. The question is if it can keep pace.
With about 1.7 gigawatts shipped in the first quarter of the year, the Japanese market is expected to reach 5.3 gigawatts in 2013, with the potential to surprise on the upside to 6.1 gigawatts, according to GTM Research’s Scott Burger. That puts Japan in a position to eclipse Italy and Germany and slip into the second spot behind new global solar market leader China. But because system pricing in Japan is expensive, Japan could be the largest market in dollars, if not in megawatts.
The market is clearly expanding incredibly rapidly, said GTM’s Burger, who added, “The utility and commercial markets are exploding, while the residential market is continuing its relatively steady growth.” He provided stats with data from J-PEC, the branch of METI responsible for recording residential installs, and JPEA, the organization responsible for reporting shipments.
- Residential installs 1Q13: 356 megawatts
- Commercial installs 2Q12 to Feb. 2013 (10 kilowatts to 1 megawatt): 309 megawatts
- Large-scale installs 2Q12 to Feb. 2013 (>1 megawatt): 110 megawatts
- Commercial applications 2Q12 to Feb. 2013: 4,575 megawatts
- Large-scale applications 2Q12 to Feb. 2013: 6,436 megawatts
- Residential shipments 1Q13: 562 megawatts — up 70 percent over 1Q12.
- Commercial shipments 1Q13: 407 megawatts — up 89 percent over 4Q12 and 5,187 percent over 1Q12.
- Large-scale shipments 1Q13: 762 megawatts — up 146 percent over 4Q12 and 1,378 percent over 1Q12.
- Total shipments 1Q13: 1,734 megawatts